📊 Indonesia Poultry Output Grows Despite Weak Demand in 2025 🐓
Indonesia’s poultry industry is entering 2025 with record-breaking production levels even though consumer demand remains sluggish. Farmers, investors, and agribusiness professionals are closely monitoring these shifts because profit margins, feed costs, and market strategies are being tested like never before.
This comprehensive guide dives deep into:
- 📌 Poultry population forecasts
- 📌 Supply vs. demand dynamics
- 📌 Feed costs & corn inclusion trends
- 📌 Challenges for farmers & producers
- 📌 10-year projections for profitability
- 📌 Strategies to survive surplus markets
🐣 Poultry Production Forecast in Indonesia 2025 📈
Indonesia is among Southeast Asia’s largest poultry producers, and the 2025 projections reveal a steady output growth despite weaker consumption.
| Category | 2024 | 2025 (Forecast) | % Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broiler Population 🐓 | 3.28 billion | 3.40 billion | +3.6% |
| Layer Population 🥚 | 341 million | 450 million | +31.9% |
| Grandparent Stock Imports | N/A | +6.1% YoY | — |
| Feed Output 🌽 | 21.4 MMT | 23.3 MMT | +3% |
| Per Capita Poultry Meat Consumption 🍗 | 12.6 kg | 13.2 kg | +4.8% |
Key Insight:
Poultry production continues upward, but demand growth is slower, creating a surplus challenge for producers.
🐔 Indonesian Poultry Growth vs Weak Demand
Indonesia’s poultry industry is undergoing rapid expansion, but the growth comes with economic challenges. Broiler production is expected to grow by 2.7% annually through 2029, with 3.4 billion broilers and 450 million layers forecasted in 2025, up from 3.28 billion and 341 million in 2024. Imports of grandparent stock indicate a further 6.1% rise in poultry production for 2025, making Indonesia one of the fastest-growing poultry producers in Southeast Asia.
However, this production boom contrasts with sluggish consumer demand:
- Live bird prices (Apr–May 2025): Rp 15,000–17,000/kg 🪙
- Production costs: ~Rp 18,000/kg 🏭
- Farmers are delaying sales, leading to heavier birds and increased feed usage.
Feed production is also on the rise, with 2024/25 output at 21.4 MMT and a forecast of 23.3 MMT in 2025/26. Since poultry accounts for 90% of feed consumption, feed mills are adapting by boosting corn inclusion from 48% in 2024/25 to 50% in 2025/26 🌽.
Despite supply pressures, per capita poultry meat consumption is expected to climb to 13.2 kg in 2024, up from 12.6 kg in 2023, showing gradual improvement in consumer uptake.
🚀 Why Poultry Production Keeps Growing 🐥
Several structural factors are driving the expansion of Indonesia’s poultry sector:
- Increasing investment in large-scale poultry farms 🏭
- High demand from export markets 🌏
- Advancements in genetics and hatchery technology 🧬
- Improved feed conversion ratios (FCR), reducing costs per kg
- Rising urbanization — more consumers shifting to affordable protein sources like chicken
However, local consumer purchasing power remains weak, meaning more chickens are being produced than bought.
📉 The Weak Demand Problem 💰
Despite impressive output, the Indonesian poultry industry faces a persistent demand gap:
- 🛒 Household budgets remain tight due to inflation
- 🍛 Diet diversification — more consumers are turning to fish & plant proteins
- 🏭 Overproduction by integrators flooding local markets
- 🐓 Live bird prices averaging Rp 15,000–17,000/kg — below production costs (~Rp 18,000/kg)
Impact:
- Farmers delay bird sales to wait for better prices
- Birds gain more weight, leading to higher feed costs
- Meat surpluses increase storage & logistics costs
🌽 Poultry Feed Market Dynamics 🥬
The poultry sector is the largest consumer of animal feed in Indonesia:
- 90% of total feed consumption → Poultry 🐓
- 6% → Aquaculture 🐟
- 4% → Cattle & swine 🐄🐖
Feed Output Forecast
- 2024/25: ~21.4 million metric tons (MMT)
- 2025/26: ~23.3 MMT (+3%)
🌽 Corn Inclusion Rising ⬆️
Corn is the primary feed ingredient in Indonesia, and its inclusion rates are increasing:
| Year | Corn Inclusion (%) |
|---|---|
| 2024/25 | 48% |
| 2025/26 | 50% |
This shift indicates heavier reliance on domestic corn supplies, potentially affecting feed prices and profit margins.
⚖️ Price vs. Production Costs 🐓
One of the biggest challenges for Indonesian poultry farmers is the price-cost gap:
- Live bird prices: Rp 15,000–17,000/kg
- Production costs: Rp 18,000/kg
- Net losses: ~Rp 1,000–3,000/kg
This imbalance forces small-scale farmers out of business while large integrators with stronger supply chains absorb the shocks better.
📊 10-Year ROI Projection for Poultry Farming in Indonesia (2025–2035) 💹
Here’s a step-by-step 10-year ROI projection assuming 1,000 broilers per cycle and 6 cycles per year:
Assumptions
- Average bird weight: 1.8 kg
- Selling price (2025): Rp 16,000/kg
- Production cost: Rp 18,000/kg
- Feed cost inflation: 3% annually
- Meat consumption growth: 2% annually
| Year | Broilers Sold | Revenue (Rp) | Costs (Rp) | Profit/Loss | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6,000 | 172.8M | 194.4M | –21.6M | –12.5% |
| 2026 | 6,000 | 177.6M | 199.2M | –21.6M | –12.2% |
| 2027 | 6,000 | 182.4M | 204.1M | –21.7M | –11.9% |
| 2028 | 6,000 | 187.3M | 209.2M | –21.9M | –11.6% |
| 2029 | 6,000 | 192.5M | 214.4M | –21.9M | –11.3% |
| 2030 | 6,000 | 198.0M | 219.7M | –21.7M | –10.9% |
| 2031 | 6,000 | 203.5M | 225.1M | –21.6M | –10.6% |
| 2032 | 6,000 | 209.1M | 230.7M | –21.6M | –10.3% |
| 2033 | 6,000 | 214.8M | 236.4M | –21.6M | –10.0% |
| 2034 | 6,000 | 220.6M | 242.3M | –21.7M | –9.7% |
| 2035 | 6,000 | 226.5M | 248.3M | –21.8M | –9.5% |
Insight:
If consumer demand doesn’t rise significantly, profitability stays negative for small-scale farms. To survive, strategic scaling, integration, and export focus will be key.🛡️ Strategies for Poultry Farmers to Survive 🐔
To remain profitable, Indonesian poultry farmers should adopt adaptive strategies:
- 🔹 Focus on niche markets — organic, free-range, or antibiotic-free chickens
- 🔹 Invest in vertical integration to control feed, hatcheries, and distribution
- 🔹 Optimize feed efficiency with precision nutrition
- 🔹 Leverage AI & IoT for real-time farm monitoring
- 🔹 Collaborate with cooperatives for better bargaining power
- 🔹 Explore export markets in Singapore, Malaysia, and Middle East
📈 Future Outlook (2025–2035) 🔮
Despite current challenges, Indonesia’s poultry industry is poised for long-term growth:
- Rising middle-class incomes → stronger meat demand
- Increasing urbanization → higher processed chicken consumption
- Technological innovation → better hatch rates & FCR
- Government policies promoting feed sustainability
However, unless demand catches up, oversupply risks will continue to pressure farm-gate prices.
📝 Key Takeaways
- Indonesia’s poultry output is growing at +2.7% annually
- Consumer demand remains weak, creating surplus meat
- Feed costs and corn inclusion rates are rising
- Small-scale farmers face negative margins
- Strategic innovation and export expansion are essential for survival
❓ FAQs 🐥
Q1. Why is poultry output growing despite low demand?
A: Because of integrator expansion, technological improvements, and government support, production continues to rise even if consumer spending lags.
Q2. How will feed costs affect farmers in 2025?
A: Feed prices are expected to rise due to higher corn inclusion and global commodity price fluctuations, squeezing profit margins.
Q3. Will poultry prices recover in 2025?
A: Unlikely in the short term. Oversupply and low consumer purchasing power will keep prices below production costs unless exports increase.
Q4. Is poultry farming still profitable in Indonesia?
A: Large-scale, integrated farms remain profitable, but small-scale farmers risk losses unless they shift toward niche markets or cooperative models.
Q5. What’s the 10-year outlook for Indonesian poultry?
A: Positive for volume growth, but profitability depends on demand recovery, technology adoption, and export strategies.
📝 Final Thoughts
Indonesia’s poultry sector is growing fast, but weak consumer purchasing power poses a significant challenge. While farmers are producing more broilers and layers, low live bird prices and rising feed costs are squeezing profit margins.
For poultry farmers, feed producers, and investors, this signals:
- The need to optimize production efficiency 🛠️
- Better cost management to cope with low margins 📉
- Opportunities to invest in value-added products like processed chicken 🍗
- Monitoring feed price trends and government policies that affect production
Indonesia stands at a crossroads: if consumer demand catches up with rising production, the poultry industry could see sustainable growth. But if weak demand persists, oversupply may continue to pressure prices and profitability.