📰 Avian Flu Wiped Out Poultry, Now the Screwworm Is Coming for Beef
The global meat industry is facing a double-edged crisis. After battling a series of devastating avian flu outbreaks that wiped out millions of poultry birds worldwide, the livestock sector is now staring down another potential disaster — the spread of screwworm infestations in cattle herds.
This developing crisis has triggered concerns among farmers, meat exporters, governments, and consumers, threatening food security, meat prices, and the global protein supply chain.
In this detailed guide, we’ll cover:
- 🦠 Impact of avian flu on poultry production
- 🐄 Why screwworm infestations are a new danger for cattle
- 🌎 Economic and food security implications
- 🔬 Scientific insights & control strategies
- 📉 Effect on global meat prices and trade
- ✅ What farmers, policymakers, and consumers should do next
🦠 Avian Flu Crisis: A Blow to the Poultry Industry
Over the last few years, the poultry industry has suffered unprecedented losses due to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks.
🔹 Massive Losses in Poultry Production
- Billions of chickens, ducks, and turkeys were culled globally to control the spread.
- Countries like the U.S., Europe, Indonesia, and Brazil recorded the largest outbreaks in decades.
- Egg production and broiler meat supply plummeted, leading to record-high prices.
According to 2025 projections, global poultry meat output fell by 15%, and egg prices skyrocketed in several markets.
🪰 The Screwworm Threat: A Growing Menace for Cattle
Just as poultry farms begin recovering, cattle ranchers are sounding alarms over the reemergence of the New World Screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax).
🔹 What Is Screwworm?
- A parasitic fly larva that infests wounds of warm-blooded animals.
- Female screwworm flies lay eggs in open wounds, and hatched larvae feed on living flesh.
- Unchecked infestations can kill cattle within weeks.
🔹 Why the Threat Is Growing
- Climate change has expanded the habitat range of the screwworm.
- Warmer winters allow higher larval survival rates.
- Cross-border livestock movement increases exposure risk.
📉 Global Beef Industry at Risk
The beef supply chain is already under pressure from avian flu’s poultry shortage, which pushed many consumers toward red meat alternatives.
Now, the screwworm threat could:
- Reduce cattle populations by millions.
- Push beef prices to record highs.
- Disrupt global meat trade, particularly in North & South America, Asia, and Africa.
🔹 Projected Economic Losses
- The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates potential losses of $3 billion annually if screwworms spread uncontrolled.
- Export markets — especially in China, the EU, and the Middle East — are likely to face significant supply disruptions.
🌎 Impact on Global Food Security
With poultry supply down and beef under threat, protein availability is becoming a global concern.
🔹 Rising Meat Prices
- Poultry prices rose 35% in 2024 due to avian flu.
- Beef prices are projected to increase 20-25% in 2025 if screwworm infestations are not contained.
🔹 Shift Toward Alternative Proteins
- Countries are increasing soybean, fish, and lab-grown protein production to fill the gap.
- Plant-based meat substitutes are gaining traction as affordable protein sources.
🧪 Control & Prevention Strategies
Governments, veterinarians, and researchers are working urgently to contain the spread of screwworms and prevent another global protein crisis.
🔹 Sterile Insect Technique (SIT) 🧬
- Release of sterile male screwworm flies to disrupt breeding cycles.
- Proven effective in Central America and could be scaled globally.
🔹 Livestock Health Management 🐄
- Regular inspections for wounds and infestations.
- Preventive veterinary treatments in high-risk regions.
- Improved quarantine measures for livestock trade.
🔹 Farmer Awareness Programs
- Educating farmers on identifying early signs of screwworm infestations.
- Training on biosecurity measures to avoid cross-contamination.
📊 Global Meat Trade Outlook 2025
- Poultry supply remains unstable as countries rebuild flocks post-avian flu.
- Beef exports may face new restrictions if screwworm outbreaks worsen.
- Import-dependent nations like China, Indonesia, and Gulf countries are expected to face shortages and price volatility.
📰 Indonesian Poultry Growth vs Weak Demand 🐓🇮🇩
While global poultry production remains challenged, Indonesia shows output growth despite weak consumer demand:
- Broiler production expected to reach 3.4 billion birds in 2025.
- Layer population to hit 450 million, up from 341 million in 2024.
- However, purchasing power remains low, resulting in oversupply and falling live bird prices.
This mismatch between rising production and slow demand growth adds further complexity to Southeast Asia’s protein market dynamics.
✅ Final Thoughts
The global meat industry is entering uncharted territory. After battling avian flu-induced poultry shortages, the looming screwworm threat to cattle populations could cause:
- Historic meat price surges 🛒
- Severe protein shortages 🍗🥩
- Major trade disruptions 🚢
To prevent a full-blown protein crisis, governments, scientists, and farmers must act swiftly and collaboratively.
Consumer behavior will also change — pushing demand toward alternative proteins, lab-grown meat, and sustainable farming innovations.
🐔 FAQs 🐄
Q1. How has avian flu affected the global poultry industry?
A: Avian flu has wiped out millions of poultry birds worldwide, causing a sharp decline in poultry meat production and disrupting the global egg supply chain. Countries dependent on poultry farming are facing severe economic losses, while consumers are seeing higher chicken and egg prices.
Q2. What is the New World screwworm, and why is it a threat to beef cattle?
A: The New World screwworm is a parasitic fly whose larvae feed on living animal tissue, causing severe wounds and even death if untreated. For beef cattle farmers, this pest poses a huge economic risk, potentially leading to massive livestock losses and higher beef prices globally.
Q3. Why are beef prices expected to rise after the avian flu outbreak?
A: With poultry production collapsing due to avian flu, consumers are shifting to beef and pork as alternatives. The increased demand, coupled with the screwworm threat to cattle, is expected to push beef prices up significantly in 2025 and beyond.
Q4. How are governments responding to the screwworm outbreak?
A: Governments in affected regions are implementing quarantine measures, mass livestock inspections, and pesticide treatments to control screwworm infestations. Some countries are investing in genetic pest control techniques to prevent a full-scale beef supply crisis.
Q5. What are the economic impacts of avian flu and screwworm on farmers?
A: Farmers are facing double economic shocks:
- Avian flu has reduced poultry farming profitability due to mass deaths and culling.
- Screwworm infestations threaten beef cattle herds, increasing treatment costs and reducing productivity.
Q6. Can screwworm infestations spread across international borders?
A: Yes. Screwworm flies can travel long distances and easily cross international borders, especially in regions with warm, humid climates. Without strong livestock monitoring systems, outbreaks could spread rapidly and affect beef production worldwide.
Q7. Are poultry prices expected to stabilize after the avian flu crisis?
A: Poultry prices may remain unstable for the next 12–18 months. While repopulation programs are underway, rebuilding poultry stocks takes time. Until then, high chicken meat prices and egg shortages will continue, pushing more consumers toward beef and pork alternatives.
Q8. How can farmers protect their cattle from screwworm infestations?
A: Farmers can take preventive measures such as:
- Regular livestock inspections for wounds
- Applying approved pesticides and repellents
- Using sterile insect techniques
- Maintaining clean and dry cattle environments
Q9. Will the global meat supply face shortages due to these crises?
A: Yes, the combination of avian flu and screwworm outbreaks threatens the global meat supply chain. Reduced poultry production and potential beef shortages may lead to higher prices and greater dependence on imports in many countries.
Q10. What are the long-term solutions to prevent future poultry and beef crises?
A: Long-term solutions include:
- Enhanced livestock biosecurity to stop avian flu transmission
- Vaccination programs for poultry
- Integrated pest management systems to control screwworm populations
- Diversification of protein sources, such as plant-based meats