Global poultry trade has witnessed an unexpected disruption — and Thailand stands at the brink of seizing a golden opportunity. The largest poultry exporter, Brazil, is battling a highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) outbreak in its southern poultry belt. As a result, top buyers like China, Japan, and the EU have suspended imports from Brazil. Into this vacuum steps Thailand, a nation long sidelined by quota restrictions but now poised to thrive.
This blog takes a deep dive into the origins, economics, biosecurity, and implications of this shift. Whether you are a poultry farmer, exporter, or policy analyst, this is the one post you need to understand the future of poultry exports in 2025 and beyond.
🇧🇷 What Happened in Brazil? A Bird Flu Breakdown 🦠
🔍 Outbreak Timeline:
- May 2025: First confirmed H5N1 outbreak in a commercial farm in Rio Grande do Sul.
- June 2025: Spread to 11 facilities, leading to culling of millions of birds.
- Major importers like China and EU quickly suspended imports from affected regions.
🛑 Trade Fallout:
- Brazil exported over 4.7 million tons of poultry in 2024.
- 15% of that (around 700,000 tons) is now affected due to regional restrictions.
- Prices dropped internally, but international poultry prices soared.
🇹🇭 Thailand’s Disease-Free Advantage 🛡️
Thailand’s poultry industry is heavily biosecured. With no major bird flu outbreaks since 2008, it has won international acclaim for its:
✅ Fully integrated supply chains
✅ Modern processing plants (certified by EU, Japan, Gulf states)
✅ Mandatory farm disinfection and vaccination protocols
✅ Surveillance systems to track asymptomatic cases
Thailand’s top exporters — Charoen Pokphand Foods (CPF), Betagro, and GFPT — have increased output by 12-15% since April 2025.
💹 The Economic Windfall: Billions in Sight
📦 New Orders Are Rolling In:
- China has opened import channels for 3 more Thai plants.
- Japan placed additional orders for 200,000 metric tons of cooked poultry.
- Saudi Arabia has doubled its pre-cooked chicken demand from Thailand.
💰 Revenue Outlook:
- Thailand exported 960,000 tons of poultry in 2024.
- 2025 projections now exceed 1.3 million tons.
- Estimated revenue boost: $1.6 billion to $2.2 billion by year-end.
📈 Stock Market Surge:
- CPF shares up 22% since May.
- Betagro up 19%, with new export contracts.
🚛 Logistics and Trade Routes
🌐 Supply Chain Expansion:
- Bangkok's ports are increasing cold storage capacity by 30%.
- New reefer containers ordered from Singapore.
✈️ Air-Freight to Premium Markets:
- High-value chicken parts (breasts, drumsticks) sent to UAE, South Korea.
- Time-sensitive halal-certified poultry airlifted to GCC countries.
🧪 The Biosecurity Battle: Can Thailand Stay Safe?
With greater demand comes greater risk. The Thai government has:
🔬 Increased border surveillance
🔬 Imposed 14-day quarantines for all incoming poultry genetics (e.g., breeder chicks)
🔬 Banned backyard poultry in outbreak-prone provinces
🔬 Conducted mass simulation drills
Private farms now employ AI-based thermal cameras, and blockchain is being tested to trace each bird from hatch to processing.
🐣 Small Farmers Are Winning Too
While large corporations dominate exports, small-scale Thai poultry farmers are also gaining:
🏡 Government subsidies for poultry sheds and sanitation
📚 New training programs on export-grade biosecurity
📦 Co-operative clusters formed to pool resources and negotiate export contracts
Many farmers in Nakhon Ratchasima and Khon Kaen have begun supplying pre-processed birds to larger companies.
📊 Comparing Thailand and Brazil: A 2025 Snapshot
| Factor | Brazil | Thailand |
|---|---|---|
| Bird Flu Outbreak | Yes (2025) | No since 2008 |
| Poultry Export Volume | 4.7 million tons | 1.3 million tons (2025 est.) |
| Major Importers | China, EU, Middle East | Japan, China, UK, Gulf |
| Avg. Processing Cost | Lower | Higher but value-added |
| Supply Chain | Fragmented | Integrated |
🌐 Global Ramifications: A Changing Poultry Map
This isn’t just about two countries — the ripple effects are global:
🌎 Africa is now importing Thai chicken for the first time.
🇺🇸 US poultry is seeing price hikes due to global supply tensions.
🇪🇺 EU supermarkets are renegotiating contracts, with 18% more Thai imports.
🇮🇳 India is evaluating its own biosecurity roadmap, inspired by Thailand.
📉 What If Brazil Recovers Quickly?
Brazil has requested regionalization of trade bans, which would allow unaffected areas to continue exports. But even if accepted:
❗Trust takes time to rebuild.
❗Thailand will have secured long-term contracts by then.
❗Importers will diversify to avoid future disruptions.
📣 Industry Voices and Expert Quotes
"This is the moment Thailand has been waiting for. If we play it right, we can be the new leader in global poultry."
— Somchai J., CEO of Betagro
"Even a temporary fall in Brazil's exports could lead to long-term contract shifts. Thailand must deliver quality and consistency." — Dr. Angela Tan, Agricultural Economist, Singapore
🧠 Final Thoughts: A Thai Poultry Takeover?
Thailand didn’t cause this crisis — but it's poised to benefit. Years of investment in hygiene, technology, and reputation have set the country up for success.
Whether this becomes a permanent power shift depends on:
🔍 Continued bird flu-free status
🔍 Consistency in meeting export volumes
🔍 Ability to absorb long-term logistics and cost pressures
Thailand has turned crisis into opportunity. Now the world is watching.
❓Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
❓ 1. Why has Thailand become a preferred poultry exporter in 2025?
✅ Answer:Thailand's rise is due to its excellent biosecurity protocols, consistent disease-free status, and modern processing facilities approved by countries like Japan, the EU, and the Gulf states. While Brazil struggles with bird flu outbreaks, Thailand’s proactive disease control measures and reputation for food safety have made it the top alternative for global poultry buyers.
❓ 2. How has bird flu in Brazil affected the global poultry supply chain?
✅ Answer:Brazil’s bird flu outbreak has led major importers like China, Japan, and the EU to suspend imports from affected regions. This disruption caused global poultry prices to spike and created a supply vacuum. Countries like Thailand and the U.S. have stepped in to fill the gap, reshaping global trade routes and supplier preferences.
❓ 3. Can Thailand maintain this poultry export momentum long-term?
✅ Answer:Yes, but only if it sustains its bird flu-free status and keeps up with increasing demand. The Thai government is investing in AI-driven biosecurity, blockchain for traceability, and expanding cold chain logistics. However, competition will return once Brazil recovers, so consistency and innovation will be key.
❓ 4. Are small poultry farmers in Thailand benefiting from the export boom?
✅ Answer:Absolutely. The Thai government has launched support programs to help small farmers meet export standards through subsidies, co-operatives, and training. Many are now supplying pre-processed chickens to large exporters, enabling rural communities to benefit from the global poultry surge.
❓ 5. What lessons can other poultry-producing countries learn from Thailand?
✅ Answer:Thailand’s success shows the power of long-term investment in biosecurity, supply chain integration, and transparent regulation. Countries aiming to enter or expand in the global poultry market must focus on disease prevention, traceability, and meeting international quality standards consistently.
🔚 Summary: Key Takeaways 📝
✅ Thailand’s exports are surging due to Brazil’s bird flu woes
✅ Biosecurity is the cornerstone of Thai poultry’s success
✅ Global buyers are diversifying, and Thailand is their new go-to
✅ Small farmers, logistics hubs, and corporates all stand to benefit
✅ The poultry trade landscape is being redrawn — and Thailand holds the pen