The poultry industry in 2025 stands at a critical crossroads. According to a new Rabobank report, poultry markets are being increasingly influenced by geopolitical instability and the relentless spread of avian influenza (AI). From disrupted trade routes and export bans to rising input costs and consumer shifts, the sector faces unprecedented volatility.
This blog explores Rabobank’s latest findings on how these two forces are shaping the global poultry trade and what stakeholders—farmers, exporters, importers, and policymakers—must do to adapt and survive.
🌍 1. Geopolitical Tensions: A Growing Threat to Poultry Trade
📦 Trade Disruptions & Export Bans
Geopolitical instability—such as the Russia-Ukraine war, US-China trade tensions, and Middle East conflicts—continues to disrupt global poultry supply chains. Countries are enacting trade restrictions or prioritizing domestic food security, causing price fluctuations and market uncertainty.
- Example: Many Gulf countries have placed temporary bans on poultry imports from Europe due to political alliances and food safety fears.
- Impact: Exporters face delayed shipments, overstocked inventories, and a sudden need to reroute supply chains.
💱 Currency Volatility
Sanctions and economic retaliation affect currency exchange rates. Exporting nations with weakening currencies become more competitive, while importing nations face costlier imports.
- Case Study: The Brazilian Real's depreciation helped Brazil dominate some export markets in 2024, especially in Asia and the Middle East.
🛢️ Rising Input Costs
Geopolitical conflicts raise fuel and fertilizer prices, directly affecting feed and transport costs—two major expenses in poultry production.
- Result: Producers in Africa and Southeast Asia face tightening margins and may reduce flock sizes.
🦠 2. Avian Influenza: The Unpredictable Disease Still Wreaking Havoc
🐓 AI Outbreaks Becoming More Frequent and Widespread
Rabobank data suggests that 2024 saw over 800 significant AI outbreaks worldwide, with many cases in commercial farms across Europe, Asia, and North America.
- Mutation Concern: New H5N1 and H7 variants are proving resilient, spreading even in vaccinated flocks.
- High Mortality: Some outbreaks have mortality rates exceeding 50%, causing huge economic losses.
🚫 Market Access Restrictions
AI outbreaks often trigger import bans from countries with zero-tolerance biosecurity protocols.
- Example: China suspended poultry imports from Poland, the Netherlands, and parts of the U.S. due to AI detections in late 2024.
🧪 Biosecurity and Vaccination Becoming Critical
Countries are forced to invest heavily in AI vaccination campaigns, surveillance, and biosecurity systems.
- Challenge: Many developing countries lack infrastructure for mass AI testing and immunization, leading to uncontrolled spread and economic loss.
📈 3. Price Volatility Across Regions
🌎 Winners and Losers in the Global Market
Because of AI and geopolitics, some exporters are benefiting from gaps left by banned regions:
- Brazil: Currently the world's top poultry exporter, Brazil has capitalized on AI outbreaks in Europe and strict Chinese bans on U.S. poultry.
- Thailand & Turkey: These nations are rapidly expanding exports to Middle Eastern and African markets.
📉 Consumers Facing Higher Prices
In regions where supply has shrunk due to AI or import bans, prices have surged.
- Middle East & North Africa (MENA): Poultry prices are up 12–18% YoY due to reduced European supply.
- Europe: Consumers face higher retail prices as producers grapple with higher feed costs and flock culling due to AI.
📊 4. Rabobank's Strategic Recommendations
✅ Diversify Markets and Routes
Exporters should not rely on a single destination. Geopolitical disruptions and AI bans can cut off entire regions overnight.
- Action Tip: Invest in digital logistics platforms that offer agile rerouting of poultry exports.
✅ Invest in Biosecurity
High-biosecurity farms are more resilient to AI outbreaks and are more attractive to buyers with strict sanitary requirements.
- Tip: Use AI-powered surveillance and automated poultry house disinfection.
✅ Develop Domestic Markets
Countries dependent on exports should begin nurturing local demand for poultry products to reduce exposure to foreign bans.
- Example: India’s domestic chicken consumption rose 9% after facing hurdles in its export strategy in 2024.
✅ Track Policy Changes
Governments are increasingly linking poultry import policies to both animal health and geopolitical loyalty. Stakeholders must stay updated.
🧠 6. Key Takeaways: How Poultry Stakeholders Should Act
- Expect more volatility: AI outbreaks and trade policy shifts can trigger immediate changes in supply flows.
- Prepare for unpredictability: Traders should maintain agile logistics and backup export strategies.
- Biosecurity is no longer optional: Farms that invest in vaccination and strict protocols are more likely to remain competitive.
- Track geopolitical events: From tariffs to regional conflicts, these are now leading indicators for poultry pricing and trade dynamics.
🧠 Final Thoughts
As Rabobank's report highlights, poultry markets in 2025 are no longer shaped by supply and demand alone. Avian influenza outbreaks and geopolitical turmoil now define who wins and who loses. For producers, exporters, and retailers, adaptability, innovation, and strategic foresight are no longer optional—they’re essential.
To succeed in this volatile environment, poultry stakeholders must monitor these forces closely, implement robust biosecurity measures, and diversify both markets and supply routes. Those who act now will survive—and possibly thrive—while others may be left scrambling.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q1. How is avian influenza affecting poultry prices globally?
A: Avian influenza outbreaks lead to export bans and reduced supply, often causing sharp price increases in affected regions.
Q2. Why are geopolitical tensions impacting poultry trade?
A: Trade sanctions, conflicts, and protectionist policies disrupt export routes and make international poultry markets unstable.
Q3. Which country is benefiting the most from these disruptions?
A: Brazil remains a major winner, capturing markets vacated by Europe and the U.S. due to AI outbreaks and trade bans.
Q4. How can poultry farmers protect against avian influenza?
A: Strong biosecurity, AI vaccination, and early disease detection through digital tools are key to mitigating outbreaks.
Q5. Is poultry demand increasing or decreasing globally?
A: Despite disruptions, global demand is rising, especially in Asia and Africa. However, supply struggles to keep pace due to AI and geopolitics.