In the turbulent world of global poultry trade, Brazil stands as a powerhouse. When the country halted or slowed chicken exports due to disease outbreaks, the ripple effects were felt across Asia, Africa, the EU, and the Middle East. Now, with Brazil resuming exports in mid-2025, chicken prices that had skyrocketed during the slowdown are finally stabilizing—a move welcomed by consumers but one that has sparked complex reactions from poultry farmers and trade economists alike.
But what exactly caused the price volatility? How is Brazil’s return impacting domestic producers in other countries? And what does this mean for long-term poultry sustainability?
Let’s break it down in a comprehensive, global context.
🌍 Why Brazil Matters in Global Poultry Trade
Brazil is the world’s largest chicken exporter, shipping over 4.6 million metric tons of poultry meat annually to more than 150 countries. The country’s advantages include:
- 🌾 Abundant grain for feed (corn, soy)
- ☀️ Favorable climate
- 🐓 Established farming infrastructure
- 🚢 Strategic export logistics
In 2024, Brazil’s temporary export slowdowns due to avian influenza concerns and climate disruptions created supply shortages, causing chicken prices to surge in many import-reliant countries.
Now, in 2025, the resumption of exports has restored balance—but not without consequences.
📈 Chicken Price Trends Before and After Brazil’s Resumption
Before Resumption (Late 2024 – Early 2025):
- 🐔 Chicken prices rose 20–45% globally.
- 📉 Domestic producers in countries like Pakistan, South Africa, and the Philippines enjoyed short-term gains.
- 🍗 Demand for alternatives (like fish and plant proteins) increased.
After Resumption (Mid 2025):
- 🔻 Wholesale chicken prices declined in Asia, MENA, and Sub-Saharan Africa.
- 🧊 Cold chain operators resumed bulk imports.
- 👨🌾 Local farmers in some regions face falling prices and oversupply.
🇧🇷 What Led Brazil to Resume Exports?
1. Contained Avian Influenza Risk
Brazil implemented:
- Targeted flock culling
- Region-specific quarantines
- Enhanced on-farm biosecurity
These steps convinced global buyers—especially China, Saudi Arabia, and the EU—to lift bans and resume orders.
2. Diplomatic Trade Wins
Brazil struck updated agreements with:
- 🇯🇵 Japan (poultry health certification alignment)
- 🇨🇳 China (faster import approval process)
- 🇪🇺 EU (country-specific health clearance zones)
3. Surplus Inventory and Economic Pressure
Domestic poultry overstock pushed Brazil to restart exports to avoid collapse in local prices and maintain industry employment.
🌐 Global Reactions to Brazil’s Return
🌾 Importing Nations (e.g., UAE, Iraq, Ghana)
✅ Benefit: Lower consumer chicken prices
❌ Risk: Local producers undercut by cheap Brazilian imports
🏭 Exporting Competitors (e.g., US, Thailand)
✅ Competition spurs quality and efficiency
❌ Losing temporary market share gained during Brazil’s pause
🐓 Local Farmers in Import-Dependent Countries
✅ Imports reduce feed-to-cost imbalance
❌ Local poultry may become less profitable, especially for smallholders
💸 Price Stabilization: A Double-Edged Sword?
✅ Positive Effects:
- Reduced consumer inflation in food prices
- Increased food security in import-reliant nations
- Calmer global trade outlook for poultry
❌ Negative Impacts:
- Local poultry sectors risk collapse under price dumping
- Small-scale farmers can’t compete with Brazil’s economies of scale
- Poultry feed sectors in other countries face reduced demand
📊 Country-by-Country Impact Analysis
🇮🇳 India
- Mostly self-sufficient
- Export potential limited by lack of cold chain
- Faces pressure in Gulf markets
🇵🇰 Pakistan
- Domestic prices dip 8–12%
- Farmers urge government to curb imports
- Higher demand for organic/desi chicken as premium niche
🇳🇬 Nigeria
- Domestic poultry expansion threatened
- Smuggled frozen chicken re-enters illegally
- Consumers benefit short-term
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
- Imports from Brazil resume at scale
- Domestic industry struggles to maintain pricing
- Shift toward frozen cuts, ready-to-cook items
🇮🇶 Iraq
- Relies heavily on Brazil
- Prices stabilize in markets after months of spikes
- Local farmers pivot to eggs and live birds for differentiation
📦 Supply Chain Adaptations
Global companies like JBS, BRF, and Aurora Alimentos are streamlining:
- IQF (Individually Quick Frozen) poultry for long shelf life
- Halal-certified cuts for Islamic markets
- Organic and antibiotic-free product lines
Retailers are also adapting packaging to emphasize traceability, hygiene, and animal welfare, in response to post-pandemic consumer awareness.
🔮 Long-Term Forecast: Will Prices Stay Stable?
Industry experts predict:
- 📉 Continued price stabilization until Q4 2025
- ⚖️ Prices may vary depending on disease outbreaks or feed price shocks
- 💡 Sustainable local production (biosecurity + branding) will remain key for smallholder resilience
🛡️ What Can Local Farmers Do to Stay Competitive?
1. Focus on Niche Products
- Organic chicken
- Heritage breeds
- Desi eggs or omega-3 enriched eggs
2. Strengthen Biosecurity
Compete not on price, but quality and health certification.
3. Local Branding + D2C Sales
Sell direct via WhatsApp, farmers' markets, and Facebook groups.
4. Process and Add Value
- Marinated cuts
- Ready-to-cook chicken
- Dried or smoked chicken
📢 Policy Recommendations for Governments
- Impose anti-dumping safeguards if needed
- Fund cold storage and logistics for local processors
- Promote labeling laws to distinguish domestic vs imported poultry
- Subsidize smallholder feed costs or vaccinations
💬 Voices from the Field
“We were finally making some profit during Brazil’s absence. Now, the market is again flooded with cheap imports.”
— Yusuf M., poultry farmer in Kano, Nigeria
“Brazil returning to the market is great for our food supply chain. But we need to protect our farmers with smarter trade policies.”
— Dr. Anjali R., agri-economist, India
📌 Final Thoughts: Opportunity or Threat?
Brazil’s resumption of chicken exports in 2025 has brought much-needed price relief globally. But it also reveals the fragility of localized poultry economies that depend too heavily on global pricing and lack value-added infrastructure.
The real winners will be those who:
- Adapt to global trends
- Diversify income streams
- Focus on quality over quantity
Brazil’s comeback is a wake-up call for poultry sustainability worldwide.